As for this week, I'm going heavy with the road teams. Yes, I know road teams are 11-21 this year (14-16-2 against the spread), but gambling is mind numbingly unpredictable. And, you know, they may not rack and stretch out the rents of their houses. Plus, every single one of my players in fantasy football is playing on the road today, so that's a sign.
Picks up, let's do this.
Patriots (-9.5) over BILLS
I'm still a Belieber, I mean Billiever, but it's a lot harder to do against Tom Brady. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills cover, but a banged up Stevie Johnson could make things harder for the wicked sma't Fitzpatrick.
49ers (+1.5) over BENGALS
This game smells like Boston Market.
Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Hillis is out with strep throat and I can't spell any of the Browns' wide receivers' names.
Broncos (+6.5) over TITANS
I actually think the Titans are going to win this one, but Broncos should cover. Yes, 'should' for my sake.
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
The Lions haven't been favored to beat the Vikings in Minnesota since Matthew Stafford was negative seven years old. That's an amazingly underrated stat.
SAINTS (-4.5) over Texans
Despite Arian Foster being ruled out due to his anti-awesome hammy, we could see 70-plus points in this one, which would be anti-anti-awesomeness.
EAGLES (-7.5) over Giants
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Sunshine Blaine Gabbert makes his first NFL start for the Jags after (surprise!) Luke McCown struggled. I could see the Jaguars 'stealing' one, but I like Cam Newton to get his first win here.
CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs
In recent years, getting curb-stomped by the Bills and then the Lions in back-to-back weeks would put any self-respecting team on heightened suicide-juice-in-the-water-jorum alert. In 2011, I don't think there's as much to be ashamed about, but yeah, I guess you should probably keep the Chiefs away from all the pill bottles and sharp objects.
The Chargers are 0-2 against the spread and 14.5 is a lot of points to cover in the NFL, but the Chiefs are abysmal and still mourning the destruction of Jamaal Charles' knee. At least we still have fantasy football, right? (Unless you own Charles, of course.)
Jets (-3.5) over RAIDERS
The Raiders are 2-0 against the spread this year and the GD Jets are the team I'd like to see lose every week -- I hate them with an unreasonable passion. I can't let things like facts and personal feelings get in the way of serious things like picks against the spread, though. Jets win by a touch.
Ravens (-3.5) over RAMS
No Amendola, no Jackson -- I'd like to think no way Rams win this one.
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
Game of the Week? Sure.
SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Cardinals
Win forever, or just this week, Seahawks.
Falcons (+1.5) over BUCS
Still waiting for that Julio Jones breakout game. Still... waiting.... [whistles]
Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS
A lot of points to cover here, but the one point I'll make is that Kerry Collins' beard is actually getting grayer.
COWBOYS (-5.5) over Redskins
Mile Austin is out and Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Felix Jones are banged up, so I thought about going with the Redskins here, but then I remembered they're backed by Rex Grossman.
Last week: 10-6
Standings vs. Commenters (Record ...... GB):
Me: (18-14 ...... -- )
D.P.: (14-18 ....... 4)